The third quarter of 2025 has been a mixed bag for breweries: some good news, some not-so-great, and plenty to think about if you run a taproom or kitchen. Shifts in how people spend (and how often they show up), along with some fresh ways to work with food suppliers, are forcing brewery owners to adapt. Here’s how the landscape looks right now:
1. The K-Shaped Economy Is Showing Up in Taprooms
Look around most taprooms lately and you’ll see it: the K-shaped economy is real, and it’s likely showing up in your sales reports.
High earners (>$230K/year household) are still spending, but more selectively. Loyalty now comes through exclusivity: early access to releases, behind-the-scenes perks, or even input into beer design.
Middle-income guests aren’t quitting beer—they’re just going out less. And are increasingly likely to look for value, so consider bundling multiple items, food-and-beer pairings, and customer loyalty perks can help keep them coming back.
You may also want to rethink your hours. Reduced visits lead to reduced customer counts, so consider reviewing your slowest hours and whether they have changed over the past 12 months.
Btw, if you’ve ever wondered about your guests’ average household income, there are tools for that. Some that commercial real estate pros already use for demographic and visitor analytics. Shoot me an email if you’re curious and I’ll point you in the right direction.
2. September’s Dip Was Just an Air Pocket
September was a disproportionately slower month for many craft brewers. Even large restaurant chains reported same-store sales declines. Some locations reported as high as 10% decline YoY.
Cell phone data showed a national dip in retail traffic during the week of Sept 22–29, in line with the decrease in sales, mirroring broader consumer uncertainty rather than brand fatigue.
October showed some signs that things were not so bad, but the American consumer is certainly cautious, and craft breweries are not immune.
3. Food Distributor Deals Are Getting Smarter
If you’ve got a serious food program, this is actually where you can win. Breweries are getting sharper about negotiating with big distributors like Sysco, US Foods, Shamrock, and Chef’s Warehouse.
If you are running multiple restaurants disguised as a brewery, then volume discounts, rebates, and preferred terms are all on the table.
Vendor consolidation can reduce complexity while increasing pricing power, leading to 2–5% savings on food costs. That can add up to $50K+ in annual margin improvement, a meaningful shift for brewery profitability.
Pro tip: Tools like XtraChef and MarginEdge can track item-level costs and strengthen your negotiating position. But often, the simplest strategy wins: maintain relationships with multiple vendors to keep everyone sharp on pricing.
Bottom Line
The end of Q3 and start of Q4 is hinting at some belt-tightening among your customers. Beer generally holds up when times are tough, though, and smart moves (like bundling specials and finding food cost savings) can help cushion your margins if sales start slipping.
